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How Dangerous Are Earthquakes for the Supply of Raw Materials?

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US Geological Survey presents study on copper and rhenium.

The vulnerability and regional concentration of supply chains for critical minerals has become a matter of public awareness since the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian attack on Ukraine. However, it is not only global crises and geopolitical factors that jeopardize the supply of raw materials; natural disasters are also a risk factor. The US Geological Survey (USGS) has now presented the first global study on the potential impact of earthquakes on supply chains. Initially applied to the metals copper and rhenium, the new method used could be extended to other mineral commodities, according to the USGS.

Many of the largest mines and processing plants for copper are located in highly earthquake-prone regions in South America, East Asia and the Pacific, which could have an impact on the entire supply chain, the report concludes. Rhenium is exposed to a similar risk as a by-product in some copper mines. However, the research team points out that the results probably only represent the lower limit of the overall risk. On the one hand, these are average values on an annual basis, which could easily be exceeded by a single major earthquake. Secondly, there was a lack of publicly available data, particularly for China.

The full study can be accessed here as a PDF: https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2024/1028/ofr20241028.pdf

Photo: iStock/Petrovich9

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